January 1999~January 2004: Settle in Taiwan. Identity crisis. Continue writing notes started in 1994. Work on own projects. Existential crisis. Move to second apartment. Produce hundreds of pages of notes and pieces. Visit South Africa four times.
(Abandoned house in my new neighbourhood)
January 2004~January 2009: Write more. Meet my life partner. Start obsessing over “make money from home”. Experience one failure after another. Learn how to self-publish. Quit smoking. Visit South Africa three times.
(New chapter begins)
January 2009~January 2014: Start personal websites. Publish writing. Even more failures with “make money from home”. Get more classes and rebuild finances. Move to new “office”. Visit South Africa three times.
(Boxes move to a new space)
January 2014~January 2019: “Make money from home” shifts to pre-race trading and football betting. Repeated failures and high stress. Spend six days in Kyoto and Osaka. Publish several thematic collections of my writing. Visit South Africa two times.
(Damned pre-race trading)
January 2019~January 2024: Spend six days in Ho Chi Min City (Saigon) in Vietnam. Covid-19. Classes are cancelled; schools close. Revenue drops by 60%. ChatGPT and other Artificial Intelligence commercially available. Publish my first products created with new resources. Travel around the entire island of Taiwan for the first time. Visit South Africa one time.
(Important crossroad in Vietnamese history)
January 2024~January 2029: Utilize various AI resources to produce more products. Visit South Africa twice (so far).
Maturity test for a leader of an independent Taiwan: Do you acknowledge that your small nation may be exploited by a superpower on the other side of the globe to undermine their rival who happens to be your closest neighbour? Do you comprehend that accepting military assistance from this superpower would be seen by your close neighbour as attempts to undermine their natural growth as a regional and world power? If you fail to recognize this and comprehend this reality, you have no business being the leader of a country, much less a de facto but not de jure independent one.
WEDNESDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2024
A reasonable argument can be made that Taiwan should be independent. The country and its people have proven over the past seven decades that they do not need any non-Taiwanese political masters to run their affairs.
Another insight I recently gained from the book, A New Illustrated History of Taiwan, by Chou Wan-yao, is that Taiwan was colonized not only by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945, but also, to a large extent, by the Nationalist government of the Republic of China between 1945 and at least the 1990s – which also forced them to speak a language they were unfamiliar with (Mandarin, or the Beijing dialect of Chinese), and which also forced them to focus on the history of a motherland that was not Taiwan (namely, Mainland China), with virtually no attention paid to the unique historical experiences of the people of Taiwan. It could further be argued that many Taiwanese are surely anxious about being colonized for a third time in over a century – this time by the government of the People’s Republic of China.
I think two points need to be emphasized here:
1. Taiwan risks the well-being and survival of millions of people on the island of Taiwan if they establish a close alliance with the United States of America. Two statements by the American statesman, Henry Kissinger, are relevant: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests” and “[It] may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal” (the latter was more of a warning that if certain things happened in South Vietnam in the late 1960s, America would be seen as such). The fact is, America has a historical record of exploiting other countries for their own national needs and political agendas, and when it becomes clear that things are not going to work out as they thought, they withdraw. And the country who placed their trust in them is left with the catastrophic result. Taiwan unfortunately has more than a few politicians and ordinary citizens who naively believe that America is the best friend in the world; that America will stand by Taiwan if China ever attacks the island, and that America will never abandon Taiwan.
2. The government in Beijing has a better argument than the government in Taipei about who, by international convention, should exercise control over the areas governed by the Taiwanese government – which still officially presents itself as the government of the Republic of China. In short: The Qing government ceded Taiwan and other islands to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Japan nullified all previous treaties signed by Imperial Japan with respect to China, including the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, thereby relinquishing its claim to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Chinese Republic that existed until 1949 under the leadership of the Chinese Nationalist Party, as well as to the Qing state that fell in 1912, and inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments. The government in Taipei was considered the legitimate government of all of China, including Taiwan, by dozens of countries until the 1970s, including by the United States. However, since the late 1970s the Taipei-based Republic of China has not been recognized by most countries as the legitimate representative of the people of China. Which brings us back to an earlier point: The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Qing state, as well as to the Chinese Republic led by the KMT government in Mainland China until 1949, and legally inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments, including the island of Taiwan and surrounding islands. If the government in Taipei and the 23 million citizens of the islands of Taiwan want to stand a chance of achieving official independent status, this ambition must be worked out with Beijing.
FRIDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2024
The time is ripe to talk about Taiwanese independence.
The right way for Taiwan to talk about it is with China.
The wrong way to talk about it is for the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to make statements that Taiwan and China are separate entities – despite what the constitution that gives the Taiwanese president his position dictates, and that China has no right to interfere in Taiwan’s affairs. Then, to further shake up the status quo in already turbulent waters, Taiwan is moving even closer to the world’s most aggressive superpower, the US, which sees China as its greatest geopolitical adversary.
De jure Taiwanese independence, after seven decades of de facto independence, is indeed a highly relevant topic that deserves to be discussed at the highest levels of political science. But this matter must be negotiated with China, given the reasonable arguments that Taiwan is part of One China. Challenging statements from the Taiwanese side, with hints of war with America as a supposed ally, is the wrong way to approach the subject.
SATURDAY, 19 OCTOBER 2024
Of course, many people say China will never agree to Taiwanese independence.
What is the alternative? America opens a military base on one of the islands near the Chinese coast controlled by Taiwan, with the idea that it would enable them to provide better protection of Taiwan in case the Taiwanese president unilaterally declares independence? Or, the president meets with officials from the US government, who assure him, hand on chest, of all the money and weapons and sanctions America can conjure up to help Taiwan if the island state officially declares independence? That the military conflict that would follow would initially serve the long-term goals of the US government to weaken China economically, diplomatically, and militarily as a geopolitical opponent at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese lives would surely be labelled as disinformation – as “talking points” from Beijing.
In the real world, there are only two options for Taiwan in the next decade or three: 1) As a province of China with certain privileges, such as its own currency and even its own flag, and 2) As an independent but close ally of China.
WEDNESDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2024
To summarize:
1. Activists for Taiwan independence make a reasonable argument why Taiwan deserves to be recognized as an independent state.
2. Taiwan’s independence would have to be negotiated with the government of the People’s Republic of China, and no one else. Why? Unresolved issues from World War II and its aftermath, and from the Chinese Civil War.
3. Arguments can be made why the government of the People’s Republic of China ought to recognize Taiwanese de facto independence and establish state-to-state diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
4. The government of the People’s Republic of China would most likely not agree to Taiwanese independence, for rational reasons that will make sense to anyone who understands the background, as well as the mandate that the government in Beijing believes they have to govern all territory that was part of China before the People’s Republic was proclaimed in October 1949.
5. The government in Taipei will eventually reach an agreement with the government in Beijing that after five, or ten, years Taiwan would be an autonomous or quasi-self-governing province of the People’s Republic of China. There would be resistance from Taiwanese nationalists, but eventually the majority of the population of Taiwan would accept the new political status.
The simple truth: I have said what I wanted to say. Now I do what I need to do to ensure I can enjoy a relatively comfortable retirement in a few years.
TUESDAY, 18 JUNE 2024
Now that we’re on the subject: What will retirement look like in ten or fifteen years?
Will a comfortable but not luxurious lower-middle-class life cost more than it does now or less, relatively speaking?
Will proper healthcare be more expensive or cheaper?
How affordable will domestic robots be? Surely they’ll become both cheaper and more useful, as has been the case with personal computers over the past thirty years.
What about food production? It is already possible for inner-city apartment dwellers to grow a wide variety of vegetables in their living rooms, or in a spare room. How essential will independent food production be for survival in the city in 2030, or 2035, or 2026?
How expensive will it be to travel? Self-driving taxi to the train station where you’ll travel by high-speed train to your destination – more expensive than now or more affordable? Would a person in their sixties or seventies even want to travel to other places with the associated risk if they could stay at home and experience any town, city, mountain or beach in the world with virtual technology?
With fruits and vegetables free of chemicals, plenty of exercise, low crime in high-security communities, affordable healthcare, your average Generation Xer might live longer over the next few decades. The big question: How much money would you need to sustain this retirement?
Another thing: How will money work ten years from now? Paper money and coins will likely be phased out. How much will your Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies be worth in 2035? Will it be replaced by digital currencies managed by a Ministry of Finance or Central Bank? How much influence will these institutions have on political opinion – especially opinions critical of the government on foreign policy, crime control, immigration, and vaccines?
Certainly it deserves a proper discussion, but can democracy work in reality, or is democracy like the old saying goes, “Two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner”?
Speaking of wolves and a sheep, what will life on the self-governing island of Taiwan look like in a decade or so? Will America find another lamb to sacrifice for its bloodlust and greed? The Philippines perhaps? South Korea? Japan? How far will China go to make it clear to Imperial America that if Taiwan is going to be a vassal state, it is certainly not going to be one of a crumbling empire in the West?
How physically demanding will retirement be in your sixties or seventies in a decade? Will your body be kept alive artificially with tubes and machines while your mind is on vacation or travelling the world? Of course, the tubes will just keep pumping nutrients into your veins while your credit lasts. The moment your credit reaches zero, your view of the beach, or of the Eiffel Tower, will fade until you hear one final “bleep.”
What about a medical institution that assists you in ending your own life when you reach a certain age? Or when you develop some disease that can be cured, but it will take time and money. Or when your money runs out. How popular will this be for people who cannot afford a comfortable retirement, or for whom something went wrong a few years before they were supposed to retire? How normal will it be ten years from now for doctors and other professionals who work with older people to present it as a “dignified” solution? (Will medical professionals earn a commission for their recommendations?)
Is this going to be a case of people with money living to the ripe old age of 120 or even longer, with freshly printed or developed organs, new teeth, and all sorts of other medical wonders in place of their old parts, and people who by 45 or 50 have failed to achieve financial success, or who haven’t inherited enough from the previous generation, being encouraged to receive state-subsidized euthanasia?
I hope Taiwan can continue to be peaceful, prosperous, and democratic. I also hope that China can continue to be peaceful and prosperous, if not democratic.
I believe Taiwan should be officially recognised for what it has been for over seven decades: an independent country. Nevertheless, China has claims to Taiwan that must be addressed. It is my belief that this is an issue that should be worked out between Taiwan and China. The United States had a legitimate claim to a seat at the China-Taiwan table in 1945, and perhaps for some time thereafter, but that time has passed.
The independence of Taiwan or reunification with China is something that should be worked out between these two countries without interference from anyone else.
THURSDAY, 29 DECEMBER 2022
I don’t think China will attack Taiwan within the next few years – provided the international situation remains more or less as it is now.
Three reasons: 1) A Chinese invasion is the situation that the American Deep State and arms manufacturers desire the most. It would serve the American government’s geopolitical goals and ensure billions of dollars profit for the weapons manufacturers. The Russian military operation in Ukraine also served the American Deep State’s goals, yet Russia went ahead. Why wouldn’t China do the same? One reason is because Taiwan has not been bombarding ethnic Chinese people close to the Chinese Mainland but within the borders of Taiwan and destroying their homes. And at least for now, NATO is not building bases in Taiwan and is not training Taiwanese forces for a conflict with China [by December 2023 one can’t be so sure about the factual accuracy of this statement]. 2) A Chinese invasion would lead to serious disruptions for the Chinese economy and civil society. 3) A military invasion is not China’s only option for gaining control over Taiwan. Encirclement, blockades, and economic sanctions could possibly put enough pressure on the Taiwanese government to at least consider Chinese terms for negotiation.
1. According to the UN Charter, all nations have a right to self-determination. The population of Taiwan represents a nation different from that of Mainland China – different history, different values. The fact that Taiwan and China share the same ethnic group doesn’t matter – Canada and the United States, New Zealand and Australia, Germany and Austria are all examples of countries where large parts of the population at one point shared common roots, or still do.
2. The Qing government ceded Taiwan and other islands to the Empire of Japan in 1895. After World War Two Japan renounced their claim to Taiwan but did not specify to whom Taiwan belonged, or who should take over the administration.
3. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has never controlled Taiwan.
4. The PRC was not a signatory to the Treaty of Taipei in 1952.
The argument for reunification with China:
1. The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Qing government, as well as to the KMT government that had ruled China until 1949 and has inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments.
2. Yes, the Qing government ceded Taiwan, but the Treaty of Taipei in 1952 nullified all previous treaties signed by Imperial Japan with regards to China, including the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki.
3. Yes, Taiwan has had de facto independence for seven decades, but the PRC has tolerated this for the sake of peace as long as no de jure independence is declared.
4. Yes, the PRC was not a signatory to the Treaty of Taipei in 1952, but the Republic of China has since seized to be the legitimate government of China and is not recognised anymore as the legitimate government of China by the vast majority of countries in the world. See Point #1.
* * *
I have come up with a solution to the Taiwan issue that should make everyone reasonably happy, except maybe the arms manufacturers and the aggressive faction of the Deep State in America.
The solution is as follows:
Taiwan and China agree to forge closer economic and other ties for a ten-year period – things like re-admitting tour groups, exchange students, cooperation in academic and other scientific fields, music and theatre groups from both sides of the Straits of Taiwan holding performances on the other side.
Then, the big thing: After ten years, a referendum is held in Taiwan with two options: reunification with China, or independence.
Taiwanese who dedicate themselves to independence will have ten years to convince the population that independence, and looser ties with China, is the best option for Taiwan.
China will also have ten years to invest in Taiwan and use the proverbial carrot to cultivate the Taiwanese population for the idea of reunification.
This should lead to a flourishing of cooperation in scientific, medical, technological, and cultural fields. Small-business owners and big companies will all make money. New economic opportunities would benefit workers in China and Taiwan.
If things go well for the pro-reunification faction, Taiwanese would not be willing to give up all the advantages they had accrued over the preceding decade. More than 51% of the adult population would vote for Taiwan to become a province of China with certain special benefits, such as its own flag (which will hang together with the flag of the People’s Republic), as well as its own monetary unit.
On the other hand, if things go right for the pro-independence faction, Taiwan can get its de jure independence after almost a hundred years, minus of course certain advantages that had accumulated in the previous ten years.
Problem is convincing China to accept the possibility that the majority of Taiwanese would choose independence. The question can also be asked what guarantee Taiwan would have that China won’t still attempt to incorporate Taiwan by force if the majority of Taiwanese reject reunification. Would America stand on the side-lines for ten years only to suddenly be Taiwan’s friend again?
If after ten years the majority of Taiwanese adults decide it would be more beneficial to re-join the Motherland, the case would be closed for Taiwanese independence. They would then have had their opportunity to state their case, and the people would have decided otherwise.
This also applies to the other side. If China could give Taiwan an idea of the benefits of a closer relationship for ten years, but the majority of Taiwanese still choose to have their independent state – which they would by then have enjoyed in practice for almost a hundred years anyway, then China must simply give up on the idea of reunification. Just ask Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, France, Spain, Portugal, Indonesia, Serbia, and Britain, who have all had to cede territory at some point in their histories. All survived and thrived afterwards. It’s not the end of the world.
For the process to work, rules would need to be laid down, and guarantees would need to be given. Taiwan and China can negotiate the rules, but who would ensure compliance? Who would ensure that guarantees are honoured?
WEDNESDAY, 9 NOVEMBER 2022
Fact of the matter is that Taiwan has a dual identity – the anachronistic identity of Republic of China, and the de facto but not de jure identity of Republic of Taiwan. Only time will tell if the latter would eventually replace the former, or whether both would be swept away in a wave rolling in from the People’s Republic of China.
TUESDAY, 6 DECEMBER 2022
It is not difficult to see that China is the party with the most to lose. As things stand now, Taiwan is independent in practical terms, but there is a possibility that China could regain control of the island. If such a referendum goes against reunification, China loses, as does perhaps one-fifth of Taiwanese who support the idea of reunification.
If the numbers are against Beijing from the start, why would they participate in such an exercise in democracy, and undertake to accept the results?
Would it work if Taiwan is willing to pay a price for formal independence?
In the Taiwan Strait, between the Chinese coast and Taiwan, lie a number of pieces of valuable property. About 10 kilometres east of the Chinese city of Xiamen, and more than 180 kilometres from the island of Taiwan, lies the group of islands known as Jinmen (lower red arrow). The Matsu archipelago (top red arrow) is about 190 kilometres from Taipei, and about 20 kilometres from the Chinese coast. The Penghu Islands (blue arrow) are just 50 kilometres away from Taiwan, and 150 kilometres east of the Chinese mainland. Would the government in Taipei be willing to give up these island groups in order to gain formal independence for Taiwan, and other smaller islands on its west and east coasts? Will Taiwan further pledge not to host any US or NATO bases? (They would, of course, be free to forge defensive alliances with Japan and the Philippines.)
Or – and we’re just playing around with possibilities here – Taipei keeps the islands in the Taiwan Strait, but Beijing takes control of two islands on the east coast of Taiwan, namely Green Island and Orchid Island (top and bottom green arrows, respectively).
Another possibility: Taiwan gives up control over the two islands in the Philippine Sea and the two island groups closest to the Chinese coast but retains control over the Penghu Island group. In this way, China gets precious pieces of land where they have not had land in more than a hundred years, but they lose any possibility of gaining control over Taiwan; and Taiwan loses a degree of security, but gains formal independence, and all the benefits that go with it. Would the Taiwanese public be in favour of such a settlement? Would the government in Beijing find this acceptable?
Whatever the details, the bottom line is that Taiwan would pay for a referendum that is likely to end in formal independence by giving up several strategically valuable pieces of land, and with that a degree of security.
